“The IPCC claims that the atmosphere, warmed by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations, has heated the oceans below. However, this cannot be true, because, in the tropics at least, the atmosphere is cooler than the ocean.
Varying carbon dioxide concentrations do have an influence; as they increase, the emission of radiation to the surface increases, warming the ocean surface. However, as noted in Table 1, the effect over the tropics is small. In fact, it is possible to calculate that the increase in carbon dioxide concentration, from 337 ppm to 411 ppm, only results in an increased energy flow of 0.3 W/m2. That is far too little to explain an increased ocean temperature of 0.4°C, because the increased temperature in turn increases the flow of energy to the atmosphere by about 3.5 W/m2.
In other words, while a small amount of extra energy has gone into the tropical ocean surface as a result of increased carbon dioxide concentrations, eight times as much has been escaping to the atmosphere. The absorption of additional radiation energy from the change in carbon dioxide concentration is insufficient to support the rise in latent heat loss from the increase in surface temperature.
This leaves changes in ocean currents as the only plausible explanation for the warming of the tropical reservoir. Importantly, this idea is supported by real-world evidence, such as the observed slowing of the Gulf Stream.”
I understand the underlying mechanism as follows. The slower the tropical ocean currents the less heat is transported by water away from the equatorial region, causing higher tropical ocean temperature, causing higher evaporation and therefore more latent heat transferred from water to vapour, to be released as sensible heat via condensation in the atmosphere, plus higher partial density of atmospheric vapour which is the dominant greenhouse gas.
RETHINKING THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT (Report)
“The IPCC claims that the atmosphere, warmed by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations, has heated the oceans below. However, this cannot be true, because, in the tropics at least, the atmosphere is cooler than the ocean.
Varying carbon dioxide concentrations do have an influence; as they increase, the emission of radiation to the surface increases, warming the ocean surface. However, as noted in Table 1, the effect over the tropics is small. In fact, it is possible to calculate that the increase in carbon dioxide concentration, from 337 ppm to 411 ppm, only results in an increased energy flow of 0.3 W/m2. That is far too little to explain an increased ocean temperature of 0.4°C, because the increased temperature in turn increases the flow of energy to the atmosphere by about 3.5 W/m2.
In other words, while a small amount of extra energy has gone into the tropical ocean surface as a result of increased carbon dioxide concentrations, eight times as much has been escaping to the atmosphere. The absorption of additional radiation energy from the change in carbon dioxide concentration is insufficient to support the rise in latent heat loss from the increase in surface temperature.
This leaves changes in ocean currents as the only plausible explanation for the warming of the tropical reservoir. Importantly, this idea is supported by real-world evidence, such as the observed slowing of the Gulf Stream.”
I understand the underlying mechanism as follows. The slower the tropical ocean currents the less heat is transported by water away from the equatorial region, causing higher tropical ocean temperature, causing higher evaporation and therefore more latent heat transferred from water to vapour, to be released as sensible heat via condensation in the atmosphere, plus higher partial density of atmospheric vapour which is the dominant greenhouse gas.
https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2022/09/Kininmonth-Greenhouse-Effect.pdf
Is the article already finished or is the rest paywalled? It is so short. No hockey stick, no grand solar minimum...?
My understanding over the past decade is that solar cycles drive our climate.